Market & Portfolio Update - November 2021
News of the new Omicron variant broke late in the month, resulting in modest volatility in global share markets. Markets don’t tend to like uncertainty, and it is still early in terms of understanding the Omicron variant. Much more data is required, but initial suggestions are that it is more transmissible but potentially less severe than the Delta variant. Vaccine makers are also optimistic that existing vaccines will provide some protection, and Omicron specific vaccines can be developed reasonably quickly if required.
For New Zealand based investors, the volatility global share markets experienced was offset by the NZ dollar falling. The NZ dollar depreciated against most major currencies, supporting the returns of unhedged overseas assets (assets that are free to move with exchange rates). The result was a positive 3.2% return for unhedged overseas investments.
Fixed interest portfolios provided the diversification we expect during a period of equity market volatility. Both Global and New Zealand fixed interest portfolios returned almost 1%.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank hiked the Official Cash Rate 0.25% as expected – taking the rate to 0.75%. Their updated forecasts now show the OCR reaching 2.5% by mid-2023.
Scroogenomics at Christmas: Finding Joy Beyond ‘The Extravagance’
Gazing through the dimly lit windows of his modest office, Ebenezer Scrooge pondered the modern-day Christmas, “Ah, Christmas – each December, a tide of frivolity sweeps the world, with consumers collectively parting with an estimated $1 trillion globally on holiday spending.”
Reflecting on this, the Scroogenomist wonders, “What if Christmas were not marked by gaudy extravagance, but by acts of kindness? A season where gifts are not measured by their price tags, but by the care and thoughtfulness behind them. A handmade scarf, a heartfelt letter, or simply the gift of time – all these carry more value than gold. How uplifting it would be if people prioritized what truly matters: love, compassion, and the joy of giving.”
Lifetime Book Club: Enough by John C. Bogle
Welcome back to the Lifetime Book Club! As we wind down the year, this month’s pick is Enough: True Measures of Money, Business, and Life by John C. Bogle. This reflective and thought-provoking book challenges us to rethink what we value most, making it a perfect December read for anyone looking to reflect on the year that’s been.